John Naisbitt

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How will you prepare yourself, and loved ones, when you finally realize that everything regarding daily living is about to completely change globally, yet you are not sure in what ways?

In 1990, books by two world-acclaimed futurists came off the presses. Each presented intertwined megatrends that would result in significant societal changes and powershifts world-wide. Currently at various stages of development, the predictions covered in John Naisbitt’s Megatrends 2000 and Alvin Toffler’s Powershift: Knowledge, Wealth, and Violence At The Edge Of The 21st Century, reflect major components of the impending Breakpoint to which this www.seen.com department constantly refers.

You, who would be socioentrepreneurs would do well to attune your aspirations with the changes revealed in either, if not both these insightful books. Let their comprehensive global insights into several catalysts for societal change direct you towards upholding the first law of socioentrepreneurship - Find a societal need and fill it with passion and purpose. No sense investing time, effort, and/or money - if you have it - into any undertaking that societal change will hinder, or visa-versa. Looking to be part of long-term, sustainable initiatives means getting with the big picture. The bigger, the better!

Creating a New Civilization

Standing at Toffler’s "Ground Zero", we cannot but help connect directly into Naisbitt’s exciting 21^st century breakthrough. (See top quotes.) Our world is filled with increasing disappointment, anger, pain and apprehension. For most people, social, economic, environmental, political and educational upheavals will make this Breakpoint quite frightening. As a deepening global regret for the hollow legacies about to be left to future generations shapes the likes of a growing Cultural Creatives movement, the excitement is found in helping others to see the opportunities that abound in 'creating a new civilization'. (The title for Toffler’s 1994 followup to Powershift.)

As you read this article, consider ways in which to "[t]hink globally, [and] act locally," as Naisbitt directs us in Megatrends 2000. I make this request of you for, as quoted from his follow-up bestseller Global Paradox, "The bigger the world economy, the more powerful its smallest players". Combined, those two statements reflect a collective responsibility we IONs (Individuals, Organizations, and Networks) must now shoulder. In pursuing our IONic aspirations, we must somehow meld them together so at to establish more inclusive, sustainable future societies - as much for ourselves now, as for unborn generations. This is the arduous task of what I call the socioentrepreneur.

Beyond the Breakpoint, every aspect of life and work will have changed entirely. Since 20^th century rules will no longer apply, very little actually limits us from planning and preparing for a world of new possibilities. Any expert of entrepreneurial studies will attest to the existing ties between success and unrestrained passion, creativity and imagination. It will prove no less for the socioentrepreneur's impact upon defining new societies.

Megatrends 2000, Naisbitt introduces, is about our standing "at the dawn of a new era. [That a]s we enter this new decade, our candidates for the most important, overarching trends influencing our lives are:

1. Booming Global Economy of the ‘90s
2. A Renaissance in the Arts
3. The Emergence of Free-Market Socialism
4. Global Lifestyles and Cultural Nationalism
5. The Privatization of the Welfare State
6. The Rise of the Pacific Rim
7. The Decade of Women in Leadership
8. The Age of Biology
9. The Religious Revival of the New Millennium, and
10. The Triumph of the Individual."

Each one of these 10 main megatrends generates a wealth of societal needs on a global scale. Communities of IONs need to come to terms with the profound changes about to affect both personal and professional daily lives. This need alone is enough to bring into existence entirely new, non-destructive - even holistic - industries to provide the gamut of products and services upon which a world in turmoil will place a very high value.

One such encompassing example could see entrepreneurship in all its various forms become less an aspiration of individuals and more collaborative industrial sectors. Such scenarios offer North American societies with the greatest of hopes for swiftly:

• stabilizing world socioeconomies;
• safeguarding the environment from futher rape; and
• bringing into existence a new socioeconomy.

However, in light of current failing economies much as Toronto Sun Money Editor, Linda Leatherdale "Drowning in a sea of debt: Canadians owe $200B collectively", such scenarios could also create societies' greatest threat. (To see what I am seeing, click here.)

Alvin Toffler's take on these megatrends adds fuel to the burning fires of globalization and societal change.

Alvin Toffler

Powershift "is about the new paths to power opened by a world in upheaval" According to Toffler "[t]he control of knowledge is the crux of tomorrow’s world-wide struggle for power in every human institution; [that w]e can always generate more [knowledge]. It is the truly revolutionary character of knowledge that it can be grasped by the weak and the poor as well … [making it] the most democratic source of power."

Given that, world power and wealth could so easily shift from countries like the U.S. and Canada, to those unhindered by entrenched bureaucracies and tunnel-visioned, self-interest groups. In the absence of speed, agility and committed leadership as suggested by last month's C4C article, North America runs the risk of losing its current world footing. Were that to happen, the dwindling financial resources remaining for restoration of the effective social systems we so need to reclaim, would be lost as well. Beyond the Breakpoint, this may not become an issue at all. For now though, it does provoke thought as to the consequential hardships that a powershift away from North America could cause.

Call it proud nationalism if you like, but I truly think that Canada in particular, holds a promise for emerging from Toffler's powershift a prominent steward leader among global nations. Judging from Toronto Star economics editor David Crane's recent column entitled Young People issue clarion call for Canada, I appear to be in good company.

"[Canada25] are not inward-looking young people afraid of the globalization challenge - they want to be part of the wider world, but as proud Canadians."

Now I Ask You:

• We have enjoyed a raised quality of life from smokestack generated wealth, have we not? Why should we not now wish as much for impoverished, third world countries?
• Was not some of the wealth generated in the 20^th century’s final years in the form of knowledge?

That knowledge is now needed to insure that countries picking at the industrial era skeletons do so without contracting the social and ecological viruses we now address with increasing urgency. What would be the point of taking two steps forward, only to be forced one step back? If life is to be assured for the 7^th Generation, we can not afford any backstepping.

Meanwhile, our own misplaced workforces lay strewn about the decimated economic landscapes, metaphorically resembling the Valley of the Dry Bones. The disappearances of North American middle classes, traditional jobs and markets create the opportunities for their rebirth.

Future History

Norman Macrae

Chris Macrae who happened along to respond to last month's article, Sometimes You Lead and Sometimes You Follow, turns out to be the son of the now retired deputy editor for The Economist magazine whom Naisbitt had acknowledged in Megatrends 2000. With his son Chris’s contribution, in 1984, Norman Macrae published 'The 2024 Report: Future History'. The following excerpt nicely equates our present point at Ground Zero back to the last Breakpoint when the Industrial Era overtook the Agricultural Era.

"[T]he loss of nine-tenths of manufacturing jobs … in car-making rich countries, has also been true there in manufacturing jobs as a whole. Where these countries had 20-40 percent of their workforces in manufacturing in 1974, they typically have 2-4 percent now.

This is not an unprecedented [downturn]. In the 1890s around half of the workforce in countries like the United States were in three occupations: agriculture, domestic service and jobs to do with horse transport. By the 1970s these three were down to 4 percent of the workforce. If this had been foretold in the 1890s, there would have been a wail. It would have been said that half the population was fit only to be farm-workers, parlour maids and sweepers-up of horse manure. Where would this half find jobs? The answer was by the 1970s the majority of them were much more fully employed (because more married women joined the workforce) doing jobs that would have sounded double-Dutch in the 1890s: extracting oil instead of fish out of the North Sea; working as computer programmers, or as television engineers, or as package-holiday tour operators chartering jet aircraft."

With that in mind, consider for yourselves what possibilities are afforded by modern globalization and societal change. Although somewhat dated, Future History still offers a few awesome scenarios. In rising to the challenges presented by a world in change, no matter what you may presently be planning, you should consider the demographics as they are today.

Meet Your Global Village

"Shrink[ing] the earth's population to a village of precisely 100 people, with all the existing human ratios remaining the same" may help you to see today’s global community with greater clarity. (A print version of 'What’s the Message?' provides links to real sources for the original Fast Company article: 'Please don't forward this Email!' )

Try to envision new opportunities that might best fill the societal needs of these one-hundred individuals in light of the impending Breakpoint.

"57 Asians
21 Europeans; 14 from the Western Hemisphere, both north and south
8 Africans
52 would be female
48 would be male
70 would be non-white
30 would be white
70 would be non-Christian
30 would be Christian
89 would be heterosexual
11 would be homosexual
6 people would possess 59% of the entire world's wealth and all 6 would be from the United States.
80 would live in substandard housing
70 would be unable to read
50 would suffer from malnutrition
1 would be near death; 1 would be near birth
1 ( yes, only 1 ) would have a college education
1 would own a computer
When one considers our world from such a compressed perspective, the need for both acceptance, understanding and education becomes glaringly apparent."

Socioentrepreneurial Niches (with special thanks to Silvia Austerlic for her help in bring Megatrends 2000 and Powershift to a meaningful and productive end, as well as her powerful reaction below.)

If the task ahead is creating a new civilization, there is a HUGE societal need with plenty of opportunities for IONs to be creatively productive in such matters as:

• Setting by example, the new values required for inclusive, sustainable initiatives;
• Defining new models of sociocommercial undertakings that Harness Chaos and Steward Change;
• Building IONic communities where knowledge, and resources are shared and maximized to their fullest; and
• Creating high Social Return On Investments - SROI.

A world filled with increasing disappointment, anger, pain and apprehension calls for powerful visions like Healing Fragmented Communities. The socioentrepreneur's role in fulfilling such visions is key. It includes setting the pace for societal transformation - inspiring IONs to find societal needs to be filled it with passion and purpose. Socioentrepreneurial profits will be honourably made by helping others to co-create brave new futures. In the new civilization, environmental profits, social profits and elevating the human spirit to a higher ground will have become the order of the day. Globalization will have been the means of expanding what it means for all of us world-wide to be human while standing at Toffler's Ground Zero and Naisbitts "dawn of a new era".

In a world "filled with increasing disappointment, anger, pain and apprehension", as a socioentrepreneur myself, I see the need for a new way of thinking that could help humanity overcome present problems; to be able to create a better future. It may sound simple, but it is extremely difficult. We - you and I - are the problem, not the world, since it is a projection of ourselves.

To change the world we must change ourselves first. To quote Albert Einstein:

"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them. We must learn to see the world anew."

For me, that way of thinking is Info-Design, an umbrella concept for the societal needs I want to help fulfill "with passion and purpose", as Bernie says. Info-Design’s main concern is tapping into the collaborative potential of emerging information technology to give voice to new actors in ways that both protect and transform their individual cultural identity. As I first conceived it to be back in 1995, info-design is the marriage of information technology and collaboration in an approach that could facilitate introducing new information technology in ways that metaphorically, makes familiar the unknown in a friendly way.

Regarding the future, one of the greatest challenges I see in relation to the information technology revolution is, how to navigate global spaces in order to design local actions. Design could be a catalyst for change to help us go beyond old ways of thinking; to recreate our realities from a new place. Being a designer means daring to say "YES!" to purposeful change. We, the designers of the future, are at a moment of juncture and transition that everyone you mentioned in this article, claim. Our success will depend on the global and local consensus we might be able to generate.

We need to prepare ourselves to reinvent the future in daily activities involving the use of both information technology and imagination. This would involve stories, dialogues and projects that should inspire, support and sustain the visions of the new world that are sorely needed in society today. Imagination is that special faculty that makes it possible for us to believe that in the future, the world might be better than the way we experience it today. Our individual and collective perceptions must change. We need to get rid of the old, and learn to welcome the new into our personal lives as well in our local communities. For a designer, now is the time to believe in his or her dreams; to say YES to change, and try something entirely new.

Silvia Austerlic - silvia@got.net
Info-Designer - http://www.silvia-austerlic.com/

Bernie, what a fun read.

What is remarkable about the stunning first two quotes is that they were made largely before the Internet existed - or so I presume. In particular as I read that "[t]he most exciting breakthrough of the 21st century will occur not because of technology, but because of an expanding concept of what it means to be human. ... Recognition of the individual is the thread connecting every trend described in this book," I think of it as the killer application of the Internet whilst Naisbitt was merely converging his 10 trends.

When it comes to idea circulation, the Internet gives us such new powers that I think many of us have not yet begun to realise how humanly liberating we as individuals can be. Which top 10 things, now or anticipated, do you prize most about being digital?

• How easy/cheap it is to send a message worldwide to millions as it is to the person next door?
• That everything you ever write is recorded and retrievable almost instantly?
• That once we have voice activation to replace 'QWERTY' with instant digital language translation, we will be able to hold global conversations without distance, language, or time barriers?
• The ease by which you can connect with communities of practice (CoF) who will maximise the value of your ideas?

I believe this will relentlessly increase every human being's opportunity to connect with the world at large; to learn and to coach; to search and connect; to network and to be invited to join communities where their individual talents and experiences are prized.

Historically most people only ended up at around 5 percent of their total productive - or social - potential. I suggest that with no net or high costs of travelling or communicating worldwide, in an interconnecting world these could increase substantially. This does assume that everywhere the human spirit will electrify the Internet as an open medium, making it in every way, conversationally smart - opposite to that of a dumbing-down mass mediated world.

I for one, will certainly not be able to look my future grandchildren in the face if we blow this one-in-many-generations opportunity to evolve the mother of all humanly interactive media. The net, in all its evolving forms, is our generation's responsibility to nurture.

chris macrae, Global Brander
Email: wcbn007@easynet.co.uk
Please do come to www.normanmacrae.com and tell us what has been your greatest net experience to date.

http://For-Legacies-Sake.ca