 21 Feb 2007 @ 20:43, by Unknown
It ain't over 'til it's over.
- Rocky Balboa
If the French or Americans don't see similarities in their socio-political systems, they are utterly wrong. There is a lot of similarities between what is happening in France right now, and what has been going on here in the US.
In an IFOP poll made public on February 19, Francois Bayrou would beat Segolene Royal with 54%, and would also beat Nicolas Sarkozy with 52% if he faced either or them in the second round.
The question is, can Francois Bayrou make it to the second round?
Increasingly politics are reduced to an artificial reductionist polarization to only two parties (which have become caricatures of themselves and an insult to the intelligence of the people in either country.)
And then there is the little guy…trying to break through the glass ceiling.
As it so happens, Francois Bayrou is that little guy this year in France.
Francois Bayrou has been the president of the centrist Union for French Democracy (UDF) since 1998.
French politics are characterized by two politically opposed groupings: one left-wing, centered around the French Socialist Party, and one right-wing, centered around the Rassemblement pour la République (RPR) and its successor the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (UMP). Since its foundation, and until now, UDF has been in an uneasy alliance with the bigger right-wing party RPR and its successor UMP (one reason may be that UDF's elected positions are often obtained through alliances with UMP).
Today, there is a split inside UDF elected officials, between those who favor closer ties with UMP, and those such as François Bayrou who advocate independent centrist policies. However, the party base overwhelmingly favor independence. At the congress of Lyon (January 29 2006) 91% of the members voted to retain the independence of the UDF from the UMP and transform it into an independent centrist party.
This new orientation means the UDF will be a social-liberal party aiming for a balance between socialist and conservative policies.
François Bayrou has been increasingly critical of the orientation taken by the UMP government, which he deems to be out of touch with the French citizenry. He denounces a de facto two-party system (“à l’ Americaine”), where the Socialist Party and the RPR/UMP take turns in the exercise of power, and, when in power, solidly vote for the laws proposed by the executive in such a way that no other voices can be heard.
Whether he will have the means or be able to sustain the will to change anything to the system is very doubtful to me, BUT it is a good thing that those things are talked of (and maybe a positive step), especially at such a highly mediatized time as a presidential election.
I have tried to follow the candidates on TV-5 (a Francophone channel which cover some of the events currently going on in France), and I’ve seen Francois Bayrou speak. I like what he has to say, and how he defends his ideas. I didn't find him very charismatic at first but then, again, neither are Segolene Royal or Nicolas Sarkozy, who both look stilted and "insincere" (this is not a judgment on either candidate's sincerity or lack thereof, but just an observation on how they come across, which is , no doubt, a result of modern politics and of how "packaged" candidates have become.)
In comparison, Francois Bayrou comes across as less artificially packaged. His Bearnese manners about him (He is from the Bearn – a south-western region of France - just like Henry IV was) are actually beginning to render him more palatable to me than any of the other contenders.
Furthermore, I have certainly not heard anything very impressive from the Left and even less from the Right in so far as programs are concerned. Also, although I had great expectations for Segolene Royal (the expectation were more in terms of having a woman as President, which I thought would be a good thing for France in the long run---not a political judgment, here, but more a judgment of a social nature having to do with the bigger picture in term of consciousness evolution rather than politics,) I must confess that I feel like I have been seriously let down by her (the expression "the emperess" has no clothe comes to mind.) In so far as Nicolas Sarkozy is concerned, the guy freaks me out. I mean the man is scary (although he has "softened" his image since his bid for the presidency and made a big show of saying that he had "changed" he comes across to me as a populist who favors far-right ideas.)
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