New Civilization News: Hidden Contact -- The Fermi Paradox and The Deardorff Hypothesis    
 Hidden Contact -- The Fermi Paradox and The Deardorff Hypothesis7 comments
7 Jul 2006 @ 21:39, by Craig Lang

In my last posting, I lamented the lack of evidence for contact. Yet I also indicated that there WAS enough evidence to convince me that there really is a mystery. As I subsequently thought about both the posting, and the comments people had made in reply, I decided that I had simply rediscovered what is known as the Fermi Paradox. This is the conflict between the idea that there are most likely many ET civilizations, and the observation that (from a conservative scientific perspective) there appears to be little evidence of contact with them.

One solution to the Fermi Paradox is called the Deardorff Hypothesis, first described by Dr. James Deardorff in his article, "A Possible Extraterrestrial Strategy for Earth." in the book Alien Update, edited by Timothy Good.
In this model, he proposes that the Visitors are primarilly observers, and interact with us mostly in a covert manner. At this stage of our development, they deem that we are not yet ready for contact.

I have attached a section from "The Cosmic Bridge" that discusses this idea. Feel free to look it over and give me any comments.

* * * * *

Could the Visitors be conducting a program of orchestrated contact? If so, then what might be their overall strategy? Could the close encounter phenomenon be one stage in such a plan - one in which contact is conducted one individual at a time?

Let's begin asking these questions by examining some of the big-picture models of how the Visitors might conduct a contact process, an ET strategy for Earth. Let us assume that warnings of the danger to human society from open contact with extraterrestrial beings are accurate. How could an ET civilization initiate contact, yet avoid the accompanying perils?

In his article, "A Possible Extraterrestrial Strategy for Earth" Dr. James Deardorff postulates just such a model of contact. In this article, he suggests a slow, gradual progression of contact in carefully managed steps.
The Deardorff article begins with one of the biggest questions posed, and perhaps the biggest problem with the traditional contact paradigm. This is the lack of confirmed ET intelligence (ETI) detections to date. According to several possible interpretations of the Drake equation, there should be a significant number of civilizations detectable to our radio ears. Thus, according to the SETI paradigm, we should have heard something by now. Furthermore, the reasoning goes that if "they" have space travel capability, they should be visiting our skies now, and thus should be visible to us. In short, in the words of the physicist, Enrico Fermi, "Where are they?"

Probabilistic arguments alone suggest that a large number of worlds in our region of the galaxy could be home to intelligent beings. On at least some of these worlds, inhabitants should have developed a technological civilization - and eventually, radio and/or space travel. Thus, our model of intelligent life in the universe must explain this apparent lack of contact to date. The Deardorff model suggests a way to explain this apparent silence. Yet at the same time, it hypothesizes a large-scale unfolding of covert contact between humanity and the Visitors.

Deardorff envisions a staged program of quarantine, observation and gradual contact. Finally, once all previous stages are successful and the time is right, there would be open disclosure of the ET presence and overt interaction between civilizations.

Deardorff and others make some very broad assumptions about the nature of potential Visitors to Earth. They assume that any world, which has survived long enough and become sufficiently advanced to be welcomed into the cosmic community, can be assumed to have survived its potentially warlike youth. We can reason that they will have reached a level of civilization qualifying them for membership in such a cosmic community. Thus, we can probably assume that, at least to some extent, the prevailing ET civilization(s) would be benevolent. Deardorff suggests that we can therefore assume the overall ET civilization is motivated to protect the interests of the developing worlds within its sphere of influence. From this, he assumes that the overall community of intelligent beings would be reasonably nurturing to "up and coming" worlds such as ours.

Contact Strategy
A quick perusal of first-contact speculation, in which the consequences of overt contact are considered, strongly suggests that at our present level of civilization the results would be negative. Thus, Deardorff proposes that at the present time any enlightened ET civilization would avoid open contact. Instead, he suggests that an advanced civilization would most likely follow a gradual plan for the acclimation of humanity to an ET presence.

Deardorff proposes that Earth (and other emerging worlds) would be under some form of quarantine, a Star-Trek-like "Prime Directive." This would serve both to insulate "primitive" worlds such as ours from external influence and to prevent the expansion of humanity into the cosmos while still in our warlike adolescence. With this quarantine in place, a careful program of contact and acclimation could occur.

There would very likely be several stages to such a program:
1. An initial observing stage: mapping, surveying and scientific observation - effectively concealed from human perception but including the close study of humanity.
2. Initial covert interaction: this would include abduction and expanding clandestine contacts.
3. Gradual disclosure of the ET presence: this would occur in subtle ways, beginning at the grass-roots level - but perhaps also secretly, at official levels.
4. A Subtle infusion of knowledge of ET topics into the mainstream of human culture: this would include concepts and/or discoveries that shift human paradigms toward the acceptance of contact.
5. As humans eventually became more accepting of an ET presence, a careful but ever increasing level of overt contact could occur.

An evolving contact agenda would most likely begin with an extended period of observation in which the extraterrestrials would study humanity extensively, learning as much detail as possible about our society, capabilities, psychology, etc. A program of limited contact would follow this, occurring covertly. This interaction would be kept out of the attention of the authorities (political, military, scientific, etc).

Deardorff also suggests that there might be an air of mystery and logical absurdity to the ET contact effort, at least partially due to their advanced technology, "indistinguishable from magic." He further suggests that the ET presence might even deliberately conceal itself with a veneer of absurdity. One purpose of such deliberately illogical behavior might be to make it seem nonsensical and thus "unscientific," making it uninteresting to the scientific community. In this way, the contact effort would avoid a premature acceptance by the authority structures of Earth - until humanity had evolved sufficiently for open contact.

In the Deardorff model, contact would occur to selected individuals in a covert manner. This process would occur at a grass roots level. It would begin selectively, gradually widening in scope, slowly acclimating greater numbers of people to the ET presence. This furtive but ubiquitous process of contact would be compatible with an overall "Prime Directive" style embargo and would bring about a relatively painless preparation of humanity for contact.

Within the UFO encounter phenomenon, we see many potential signs of such a large-scale acclimation process. Indeed, when one researches the UFO and close encounter phenomenon to any degree one begins to conclude that it is built around this very concept. Nearly every experiencer describes the phenomenon as being covert, coming to him or her in the dark of night.

The phenomenon itself seems cloaked in mystery and absurdity, even an aura of magic. It presents us with a host of logical paradoxes and superpositions of reality, an overlay of dreams and the physical. Is this "magic" simply our (mis)perception of a vastly superior technology? Or is there a deliberate presentation to us of absurdity, in order to repel the "rational" scientific community?

The vast scope of the abduction phenomenon seems entirely compatible with the bottom-up strategy described in the Deardorff model. Roper poll and other estimates suggest that phenomenal contact in some form has affected nearly one percent of humanity. We could perhaps view this as an indication of a massive effort to introduce humanity to the Visitors' presence.

The Deardorff model corresponds closely with some very basic assumptions I would make about humanity:
1. Humanity is not yet ready for overt contact: As we have suggested earlier, the reactions of humanity to overt contact would not be positive. Thus, the Visitors would probably avoid overt contact at the present time.
2. The primary human occupation is war: We have perfected the art of killing each other to a high degree. It is not too difficult to imagine humans treating Visitors in this same way. We can only assume that the Visitors are well aware of this and thus see us as dangerous.

These factors suggest that the Deardorff model of covert acclimation could be a key to understanding any possible alien agenda. Perhaps the Visitors are gradually opening humanity up to contact with the greater cosmic community. We can imagine a goal of eventual open disclosure, when the time is right, presumably culminating in the entry of humanity into what UFO researcher and author, Stanton Friedman has referred to as "The Cosmic Kindergarten."

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8 Jul 2006 @ 01:21 by bushman : Hmm
You might also look at it as an advanced race that has always been living on this planet, or even we learn to time travel, way in the future from now, we know how to go back in time, and rule #1 is more like Star treks prime directive, or in this case temporal prime directive, like you can get samples but dont let them know your there.


CL Note:
Interesting thought, Bushman - thanx for putting that idea out there.
I've been playing with the more conservative of the ET Hypotheses. There are a zillion others that are more exotic than the ones I've broached here.

Thanx again,

8 Jul 2006 @ 05:46 by enora : Craig
May I refer you to this article on when things will change, and how they can change between us and ETs? I had it up at NCN for a while, but took it down earlier this year. (I think you know about this already.)[link]  

10 Jul 2006 @ 14:17 by craiglang : Thanx Nora
I remember the article. It really gets ya thinking.  

10 Jul 2006 @ 21:44 by vaxen : craig
"This Law says (generally speaking) if we should come into contact with any life form from off of our world we are subject to quarantine, fines, and imprisonment. In 1991, this law was officially removed and reserved. It is my understanding that "reserved" means it can be reinstated at any time and without our permission. We aren't interested in removing a law that is already removed: it is our intention to create a new law, the Open Contact Law."-- from enoras' site.

My alien tells me that making contact with so called 'Terrans' can be very dangerous to ones' health so it was stopped long ago. Now we simply witness, observe, recon... for a future takeover replete with all the necessary force with which to wipe you humans off the face of this planet! ;)

Starbucks? Screw 'The Law.' It isn't!  

10 Jul 2006 @ 21:56 by enora : hahahaha
There are, big surprise, two main schools of thought: good aliens vs. bad aliens. What if they're all us - part of our no time, interdimensional, multidimensional existences?  

11 Jul 2006 @ 15:56 by jmarc : have you
ever investigated the avenue that these alien contacts are the product of some govt connected MK Ultra Experiments or another covert program? I've read about them being active in Montreal around the time of the Hill incident, which is where they were were coming from on their interupted trip. With your experience in hypnotism, do you think there is a possibility for these experiences to be implanted, maybe to mask other information deemed by the powers that be to be too risky to know?  

11 Jul 2006 @ 18:05 by craiglang : JMarc
I've heard that argument. Steven Greer suggests that same thing.
However, given the scale, the physical evidence amd corroborating witnesses associated with some CE4 events, I tend to discount them ALL being tied to that.
Still, some percentage of them just MIGHT be due to what you suggest.

Also, I'm not familiar with the claim of govt stuff going on on/about the time and location of the Hill abduction. Interesting idea. Although, again, there are several corroborating witnesses - such as Jacques Vallee's finding that there was a radar contact from Pease AFB during the Hill event - of course, that could be disinformation... :-)

Regarding the possibility of implanted memories, who knows...
It really is not known, just what close encounters are. IMHO the hypothesis that best fits the evidence is the ET Hypothesis, but there are lots of other arguments.

Are the memories of "on-board" activities real? One can't tell from hypnosis, as the human mind is not a very good tape recorder. But in a number of multiple participant abduction events which Budd Hopkins has investigated, the abductees accounts all meshed pretty closely. Either all of them were brainwashed in the same way, or the events occurred as described.

Thanx for the comment,

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