11 Oct 2008 @ 09:57, by Erle Frayne Argonza

The planet’s bourses are still plunging as of yesterday (Friday), a day that was dabbed as ‘black Friday’ in Japan which saw the Nikkei plunge by 10%. ‘Bloody Friday’ may be a better term, as the word ‘black’ in ‘black Friday’ could be construed as a racial slur.

This gentleman is among the economists/social scientists in Manila who forecast, way back in the late 1980s yet, that the Western economies led by the USA will experience another horrific depression this decade. We were then following the trends of a yawning gap between the ‘financial economy’ or ‘virtual economy’ and the ‘real economy’ based on the GDP statistics. The American economist Lyndon LaRouche devised a very potent graph of the event which he termed as ‘collapse function’.

Erle Frayne Argonza

Good afternoon, Fellows of Planet Earth!

The planet’s bourses are still plunging as of yesterday (Friday), a day that was dabbed as ‘black Friday’ in Japan which saw the Nikkei plunge by 10%. ‘Bloody Friday’ may be a better term, as the word ‘black’ in ‘black Friday’ could be construed as a racial slur.

This gentleman is among the economists/social scientists in Manila who forecast, way back in the late 1980s yet, that the Western economies led by the USA will experience another horrific depression this decade. We were then following the trends of a yawning gap between the ‘financial economy’ or ‘virtual economy’ and the ‘real economy’ based on the GDP statistics. The American economist Lyndon LaRouche devised a very potent graph of the event which he termed as ‘collapse function’.

As of late 2007, debts in the USA already exceeded the GDP by four (4) times. That means that, in the event of a bubble burst (which came from the realty markets), the economy will come crashing down. It is simply impossible for a $13 Trillion GDP to pay up for debts approximating $50 Trillion last year. In the secondary debt markets, financial derivatives exposures breached the $120 Billion mark in the USA last year, and that all the more exacerbates the weakness and fragility of a $13Trillion economy that simply doesn’t have the money to pay up for ballooning private and public debts.

My own forecast is that the stock market plunge across the globe, which is now in the vogue of a ‘freefall’, will continue till next year yet. At its best, the Dow Jones index reached past 13,000 points about less than a couple of years ago. The same index had already shrunk below 10,000 points at its worst. By next year, the Dow will further shrink by as low as 8,000-8,500 points, the range that actually represents the real value of the entire US economy.

1 Point in the US bourse is equivalent to $1.5 Billion more or less, at its best. A shrunken size would deflate the value to around $1 Billion. At 13,300 points, the Dow index represents a value worth $20 Trillion, which seemingly exceeds the GDP of the entire federation. But that amount is largely speculation, the speculative value exceeding beyond 50% of the real value of the commodity lines traded.
8,500 points in the Dow index would yield, at deflated value, around $8.5 Trilion dollars. That same estimate is the real value of the US economy in GDP terms, per year, as of today. The value of $13 Trillion includes the value of speculation and fiction, on account of the predominance of the ‘virtual economy’.

As I’ve already explained in a previous article, the Bush-Paulson bailout, allocated an amount of $700 Trillion, is a faulty measure to salve the financial ailments of the USA. It follows from the flawed Japanese ‘crisis management’ bailout of huge banks that went in the red last decade, a tragic measure that flattened Japan’s growth to almost zero for around ten years at least. It is a band aid solution to a gargantuan problem that is equivalent to cancer, and everybody knows that band aid doesn’t cure cancer.

That explains the jittery situation of the post-bailout law scenario. Financial traders and investors who still recall well the Japanese fiasco just couldn’t be appeased by a repeat of the same band aid solution, this time to an economy almost three times bigger than Japan’s (in real value). For as long as no strategic solution to the global financial crash is in site, the stock markets will be jittery till next year, and before long we would see both the USA and Europe plunge back to the depression years of the mid-1920s to early 1930s.

Let’s see what will happen to the election fever in the USA. Some liquidity will be produced by the election spending there, and the optimistic pitch created by the electoral situation may somehow drive back the bourses up a bit. That is just a temporary respite from the blazing flames of the crash, rest assured.

[Writ 11 October, 2008, Quezon City, MetroManila]

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11 Oct 2008 @ 19:00 by ashanti : Imminent Anglo American collapse?
It seems to be karma at work. From:

"The Financial Collapse -
What Will Happen Next?
By Bruce Porteous

Many are surprised at the speed of events occurring with the current global economic collapse. Yet few appear to be aware of what is still to follow as events unfold in the days that lie ahead. For some years I have been writing about this economic collapse, and now will explain the events that will unfold over the coming weeks.

The present crisis is not just an economic crisis ­ it is a political crisis also. What is unfolding now is a going to result in the end of the Anglo-Saxon dominance of the global economy, along with the collapse of their economies and military capacity. We are experiencing some of the most dramatic and historic events in the history of mankind. The political landscape of the world we live is being significantly changed.

Here is a brief summary of the events to unfold.

1. The Anglo-Saxon financial institutions will continue to haemorrhage as investors withdraw their funds and no longer refinance loans as they fall due. Many of the investors are foreigners who have lost confidence in investing in the Anglo-Saxon banking system.

2. The fall-out is impacting the European Union economies, resulting political and economic changes is how the way the EU is govern.

3. There will be a lack of confidence by the Asian countries in reinvesting in the Anglo-Saxon nations ­ the withdrawal of their capital will result in the collapse of the US dollar, British pound and other currencies depended on the carry trade, followed by national bankruptcy.

4. While Asia and European economies will survive and once-again prosper, the Anglo-Saxon nations will collapse into deep depression, poverty and social disintegration.

5. A new economic model will emerge, where the State replaces the private sector, exercising control over the population in how commercial activity is conducted.

Central banks over the last couple of weeks around the world have been increasing the money supply to prop up a collapsing banking system. In simple terms, this has meant creating money to advance to banks to ensure that they have funds to pay depositors and to provide additional funds to ensure banks will continue lending.

The recent $US700 billion bailout in the USA means that the banks will be repaid by the government for their bad loans, with the hope that they will continue loaning once again to debt-laden consumers to entice them to purchase more goods that they really don't need in an effort to stimulate consumer spending. Yet banks are having trouble to find credit-worthy customers to lend to, or do not have the funds to lend at all as depositors withdraw their savings.

The expansion of credit through the global banking system on the scale of the last few weeks has been a risky gamble yet has failed to restore confidence in the global equity markets, and which in turn is further weakening the banking system as depreciating assets destroy their balance sheets.

The Anglo-Saxon nations are depended on their foreign creditors rolling over their loans they have advanced through the international banking system or by purchasing Government Bonds. Their creditors have been seduced into lending to them through complex financial products and high interest rates. The English speaking world need the inflow of capital to be to finance their current account deficits and maintain domestic liquidity. Without the inflow of foreign capital their currencies risk collapsing, drying up liquidity and economic activity in their markets. Countries such as the UK, USA, Australia and New Zealand now face national bankruptcy. They will not be able to sustain economic activity to generate the foreign exchange to enable them to repay their enormous debts to their foreign creditors.

Many have compared the current crisis to that of the depression of the thirties. However there are some significant differences. The problems that prolonged the depression of the thirties were from a lack of liquidity in the markets. This time, Central Banks have flooded the markets with money to prop up the banking system and in a vain effort to stimulate economic growth. This is eventually going to be disastrousness. Printing money in a desperate effort to solve the current economic crisis will only make the situation worse. The market was already flooded with money on a market that lacked confidence and has declining productive output. The outcome will be a lack of confidence in fiat money and a flight to gold or currencies that are perceived as being safe.

At present the flow of money between banks has slowed because of a lack of confidence. Yet this is not the real problem. The current situation has been bought about as a result of continuing expanding the money supply in the Anglo-Saxon economies while maintaining large current account deficits. This has resulted in their banking systems are dependent on an inflow of capital from countries operating with current account surpluses, especially China and Japan. Printing money to finance payment of imports, dividends on investments and interest payments cannot be sustained indefinitely. The current crunch has come at a time when there has been a slow-down in the global economy, partly due to the collapse of an over-heated housing market in the West, making it more difficult for the indebted Anglo-Saxon nations to service their debts.

We are now seeing a dramatic shift of wealth from the Anglo-Saxon nations to Asia. Though the US dollar has recently appreciated against the Euro, this will only be for a short time as the world becomes flooded with unwanted dollars. The collapse of the US dollar and British pound will also drag down those currencies that have been supported by the carry trade that is dependent on the inflow of overseas capital to sustain their economic activity.

The current crisis will have enormous global politically recupssions. It will see the end of the ascendency of the western democracies. People will be willing to accept authoritarian forms of government out of economic necessity. Europe will experience the biggest political change. The current crisis has shown the inability of divided leadership in Europe to react to a crisis on the magnitude that has happened over the last couple of weeks. This crisis will bring together the EU nations under a single leader and political system.

The acceptance of a single EU leader with the power to take control of restoring prosperity to the European economies will result in the State taking a much greater role in how economies are managed. Already we are seeing Governments taking over failed banks, and legislation is rapidly being passed to give the State the authority to direct investment and control the banking system. Once this confidence is restored the Euro will quickly replace the US dollar as the international currency to finance globally trade. As currencies collapse, the Euro will be accepted as an alternative currency, so if will be widely accepted around the world as the money of choice. This will enable the EU to have great economic and political influence around the globe.

We will shortly see the collapse of the economies and currencies of the USA, Canada, UK, Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. The speed of this collapse is catching many by surprise. It will happen once their overseas investors withdraw confidence in their economies and withdraw their capital. Without being able to roll over their loans there will be a collapse of their currencies and defaulting on their international debt obligations. They will be blamed for the economic crisis that has engulfed the globe, bringing the hatred of the whole world against them.

It will result in the Anglo-Saxon nations sink into abject poverty; their people face starvation, disease, famine, and abject poverty. Their people will suffer greatly, as their societies sink into anarchy, as law and order breaks down, and society collapses. Their nations will be taken over by their creditors as they try and recover their debts, and their people put into slavery. It will be a time of great suffering and tribulation to its people.

One consequences of this calamity is that religious freedom as we have known it will be greatly curtailed, as the State imposes its will upon those subject to it.

How have the Anglo-Saxon nations got themselves into such a mess, when they were the most powerful economic and military powers on earth? The current situation is a direct result of rejecting the economic and moral laws God has given our nations to ensure that we have a society of equity, and prosperity, rather than what we have today ­ a society that is based on greed, pursuit of the self, pleasure and rejection of moral and religious values. It is a society bent on self-destruction, but few realize the consequences of such actions.

Over the coming weeks I will write as events quickly unfold as we sink into the darkness of economic abyss.

Bruce Porteous

10 October, 2008"


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